Mexico Mike

Capstone Mining commences production at the Cozamin Mine

 

 

The experts will tell you that junior mining stocks are inherently risky and they are probably right. Layers of uncertainty and volatile trading behavior can make investing in the sector seem more like a thrill ride for speculators. However, some degree of risk is built-in to every investment vehicle, and the challenge is simply to find companies that provide reasonable gains to offset whatever uncertainties may be part of the story.

 

I did not create the Mexico Mike Portfolio to serve as a neutral proxy for the entire junior mining sector. There are thousands of stocks leveraged to mineral exploration to choose from. My objective in constructing the model portfolio has been to illustrate the superior performance that can be generated through a careful selection process with an investment strategy focusing on junior mining companies active in Mexico. I  scour through the sector in search of only the very best companies that have potential for exponential gains, yet trade at modest multiples and carry lower levels of risk. Capstone Mining Corporation is an ideal candidate to meet those requirements.

 

I was recently able to attend the grand opening ceremony for Capstone’s Cozamin Mine. During my visit, I had the opportunity to tour the underground mine workings, and review the wholly owned mill and recovery plant.  Based on my personal observations, I consider the company to be a first class operation in virtually every category of comparison.

 

The Cozamin Mine is located in the premier silver producing district of the entire world, just 4 kilometers away from the city of Zacatecas, with its long tradition of support for mining activity. Capstone acquired the mine from Mexican joint venture partner Grupo Bacis as part of a larger package of past producing projects.  All of the other properties were subsequently spun out into a separately listed junior, Silverstone Mining (TSX-V: SST). 

 

Want to see the profile of a winner? Capstone has no debt, and a working capital position of more than US$20 million. Current operations generate additional positive cash flow every month. Diligent exploration work has contributed to defining a mineral inventory that will enable the mine to run for nearly 10 years at the current capacity, and there is every indication that the company will continue to increase the total resource. And what is even more important, the grade of the resources is such that the company can expect to continue to operate profitably even if the metals prices drop sharply from the current levels, adding one more level of security for the long term outlook.

 

At the operational level, the entire property area is a mining engineer’s dream. The host rock is extremely hard and stable, and the competency of the rock structure enables the luxury of excavating extensive underground workings without the need for costly and time consuming reinforcing infrastructure to be installed development is advanced. The resources are concentrated into veins that occur across wide intervals that can be economically mined with minimal dilution. The veins stretch for many kilometers with continuous mineralization and only a small portion of the productive vein system has been developed. And of key importance, the ore is virtually free of contaminants such as arsenic and cadmium that could create environmental issues or reduce the value that a smelter would pay for the concentrates produced.

 

The recovery plant is a textbook example of the right way to process ore. Equipment is modern, reliable, and tuned to yield the highest efficiency. A standard low-tech floatation cell process recovers nearly 90 percent of the copper values, and in the mid-70 percent range for silver and lead, while about 55 percent of the zinc contained in the ore is recovered. Those results are exceptional for a poly-metallic deposit. Current production is at optimum levels at about 1100 tonnes per day, but there is surplus capacity in the crushing and grinding circuits and it would be relatively easy to build up expansion to allow for 2000 tonnes per day in the future.

 

Shortly after the initial acquisition of the project, the company commenced several phases of drilling programs in order to confirm the historic resources that had been defined by the previous operator, and to conduct a thorough exploration effort that tested the potential for additional resources both laterally along the extension of the vein system, and at depth. The results of this work far exceeded the expectations, as progressively higher grades mineralization were reported with each phase. In particular, the vein system has been proven to become enriched with depth and numerous intervals were encountered bearing copper grades above 4 percent, across several meters.

 

Analysts for junior mining stocks love to talk about strong management.  Just what does that mean? For example, if a senior executive served with distinction for many years with an established senior mining company, does that mean they are necessarily going to be a good fit and create shareholder value for a small mining operation? As far as I am concerned, strong management means more than just a group of individuals with impressive resumes. It is necessary to have the right people at every level, that work together as a team while performing their individual assignments at the highest level.

 

I consider the management team at Capstone to be of superior quality. This group has the background of successful experience that so many advisors like to see. But more importantly, they understand what it takes to be effective running a smaller company. They set goals for their company, communicate the objectives effectively to the market, and then achieve those targets. That is exactly what an investor needs to see.

 

Consider the recent history of Capstone. Recognizing that a resource bull market was upon us, and then choosing to make Mexico the core area of operations were good decisions. Management then successfully closed a great deal to acquire excellent projects on great terms, in a joint venture relationship that works. The company was able to raise the funding to advance its work commitments, and recruit qualified people to serve in key roles that allowed the company to advance.

 

It is the balanced professionalism in all the critical areas of expertise that contribute to the early success for Capstone. For example, Hugh Wilson serves as the Vice-President of Exploration, and under his direction the company has been able to complete several phases of drilling that established wide new zones of mineralization to enable the company to document the impressive resource estimates, and complete the positive feasibility study necessary for a development decision. Robert Barnes was appointed Vice-President of Operations, and his 30 years of direct mine management experience no doubt contributed to the efficient development of the underground infrastructure that generates low cost production stability.  And John Wright, who is a co-founder and currently serving director of the respected mining powerhouse Pan American Silver Corp, was largely responsible for the rapid development to recommence production at the mine and helped to see the company through the very difficult transition to a producing mining business.

 

It is a profoundly difficult enterprise to restart operations at a mine, and advance through the learning curve to achieve stable and efficient operations. The combined efforts from the exceptionally talented management team of Capstone have demonstrated that it can be done with a minimum of downtime along the way. In so doing, they set the bar very high for the rest of the industry. And company President Darren Pylot can take a lot of the credit for that performance due to his selection and recruitment of the group of industry luminaries.

 

Going forward, the company is in the enviable position of having a strong treasury that can serve as a war chest for future acquisitions, or allow for an aggressive expansion and development strategy. The revenues will continue rolling in while the worldwide metals prices remain firm. At current commodity price levels, the company is capable of spinning out 45 cents in cash flow per share for the first full year of operations, and with the stock trading at the current price range, it is ludicrously cheap on the basis of a forward cash flow multiple in comparison to the peer group of smaller mining companies.

 

I have been a long time shareholder of Capstone Mining, and believe that at the current share price, the company represents the best value of any mining stock listed on a North American exchange. The potential of the property to yield further high-grade resources, combined with the financial strength, and the superbly competent management team, will all contribute to remove much of the risk that goes with investing in the sector. However, the market capitalization of the company is extremely cheap relative to the fundamentals and the potential earnings performance that the company is capable of generating in the years ahead. I buy a double allotment of $20,000 in Capstone shares, making the company the largest holding of the portfolio.