Research
Report: International Taurus
Resources Inc. - written by Mike Kachanovsky
August
9, 2004.
International Taurus Resources has completed the shift from a pure exploration play, to become a development play. Having invested millions of dollars for exploration work, and millions more towards the completion of infrastructure to allow for the extraction of the ore necessary for the test mining, Taurus is now on the verge of joining the ranks of gold producers. With all penny stock, a high degree of risk and uncertainty exists. Investors in the penny stocks must be aware of the relative risks in their choices, and establish if the premium represented by their market capitalization is worthy of the level of risk. The most successful companies for investment are those that offer lower risk, yet are priced in the market in line with high-risk ventures and are available for a discount. I believe that International Taurus Resources is resources play in which very limited risks remain, yet substantial upside potential exists. I own shares in International Taurus Resources.
Office
Address: 920 – 475 Howe Street,
Vancouver, BC, V6C 2B3
Telephone:
888-827-6611
Website:
http://www.taurusresources.com/
Exchange
Listing Symbol (TSX-V): ITS
Share
Structure:
Issued and Outstanding: 101,444,300
Warrants and Options:
31,570,143
Fully Diluted: 133,014,443
Market
Capitalization:
$29.5 million CDN
ITS has advanced to the current level under the charismatic leadership of Robert Blakestad (Director and CEO) and William Bird (Director and CFO), both of whom were involved with the discovery of gold deposits that were put into production with previous companies. They are just as comfortable in the underground workings of a mine as they are in the boardroom. Directors James Bagwell, Peter Hawley, and Don Lay, all have strengths in managing and consulting for resource companies, and in sourcing financing. Senior management have been active in the promotion of ITS, both touring internationally to represent the company in meetings with sources of institutional capital, and attending public gold shows in various cities, to be available for discussion in person with individual investors. Investor Relations for the company is first class, with prompt response to investor enquiries, timely release of news, and a willingness to speak directly with investors via telephone.
The flagship project for the company is unquestionably the Fenelon Gold Property. This project is a joint venture partnership with Fairstar Explorations Inc. holding a 38% interest, and ITS owning the remaining 62% interest. Located in Eastern Quebec, the exploration work on the property qualifies for the Quebec Provincial mineral exploration incentive that reimburses 40% of exploration costs, limiting the drain on corporate financial resources that results from exploration expenditures. Over $11 million was spent on exploring the property during the last 10 years, to arrive at the decision to proceed with an underground mining operation. In 2003 the company embarked on construction of an underground decline ramp to access the higher-grade portions of the deposit, following a study performed by SRK Consulting that conservatively estimated 88,000 tons of near-surface mineralization grading 0.35 oz./ton Au could be extracted. Subsequent to the completion of the first phase of this construction, an underground drilling program yielded core samples, which assayed significantly higher ore grades, with one sample returning greater than 3 oz/t over a 3.74m interval, and another returning greater than one and a half oz/t over 6.7m. The data from this latest round of drilling activity suggests the actual grades of the ore could be as much as double the original prediction in the SRK study. In addition, the gold prices received on the spot market have increased significantly from the time when the original estimates were calculated. The purpose of the test mining operation is to gain further knowledge of the deposit and its economic potential, and generate data in regards to the recovery expectations as the ore is milled and refined, which will be considered in a feasibility study. A previous bulk test mine resulted in 97% recovery rates. It appears the combination of higher grades and increased pricing for gold that is produced will result in cash flow projections for the JV partnership that far exceed the $3.2 million capital costs originally budgeted for the operation. Robust economics will have an obvious positive impact on the decisions made regarding further development of the Fenelon Property, and can be expected to generate additional investor interest in the company.
The
Fenelon Property is located immediately to the north of the Detour Break
structural trend that has produced several gold mines in the area.
The property bears similar characteristics with the geology of the Detour
Lake mine, a producer of over 1.7 million ounces of gold, and it is worth noting
that the Detour Lake mine has extracted gold from over 2000m below the surface.
To date the deepest drill cores for the Fenelon Property extend to only
300m, and the deposit remains open at depth.
The vein structure at Fenelon has been traced over a length extending
several kilometers. The potential
exists then that the high-grade gold extracted from the limited test mine
operation may in fact continue laterally and to a greater depth, and may
ultimately amount to several million ounces if Fenelon proves to exhibit the
same level of mineralization as the Detour Lake mine.
An updated resource estimate is in progress by the company and is
expected to be released in September 2004.
In
addition, International Taurus Resources controls a 100% interest in 3 other
properties and holds a majority interest in another JV project.
The most promising of these is the Martiniere Gold Property in Quebec,
about 30km west of the Fenelon Property. The
Martiniere Property has seen little drilling activity to this point but
encouraging results from the initial discovery by Cypress Canada, prior to the
acquisition by International Taurus, combined with newer drilling completed by
ITS in 2000, indicate the presence of widespread gold mineralization with the
potential for higher grade deposits. A
significant new vein system has been traced for over 400m length and further
exploration work will be scheduled to define this deposit.
The
Casa Berardi Property is another Quebec land package acquired from Cyprus Canada
and proximal to the Martiniere and Fenelon properties.
The principal asset of this acquisition is the proprietary data from an
airborne surveying program that identified numerous prospective targets for
exploration, and suggests the potential for a large gold-bearing structural
trend. The company’s exploration
model is to fund further drilling and sampling activity from the cash flows
generated by the development of other nearby properties.
A
final Quebec property is the Northway-Noyon Gold Project, controlled in a JV
partnership with Northway Explorations Ltd. holding a 25% interest.
This property is located just 25 km south of Montreal, and is served by
excellent nearby infrastructure. Exploration
has focused on targets generated by airborne surveying, combined with extensive
IP and magnetic surveys, and 29,000m of reverse circulation and diamond drilling
have been completed. An estimated
18 million tons of ore has been identified with an average grade of 1.82 g/t,
but insufficient work has been completed to allow for a resource estimate that
is compliant with NI 43-101 guidelines. Metallurgical
work on samples has returned recoveries rates in excess of 91% in a floatation
circuit. Further work is under
consideration to allocate a budget in excess of half a million dollars in order
to test the most promising gold occurrences through additional drilling, and the
results of this program would indicate if the development potential warrants
continuing the project.
ITS
also controls the Taurus Gold Property, located near Cassiar, BC.
This project was formerly a JV deal with Navasota Resources, but reverted
back to 100% control of ITS after Navasota decided to withdraw participation.
Although work has been done to estimate approximately 28 million tons of
ore grading 1.36 g/t Au, for a resource of over 1 million ounces contained gold,
it is unlikely that the project will be considered economic even at $400 /oz
spot gold pricing. The process to
obtain permitting in British Columbia remains a rat’s nest of complex
requirements fraught with delays. There
is the potential that additional resources will be discovered with renewed
exploration activity that would put the project within the scale to justify
attempting to gain approval for development, but with the focus of ITS firmly
rooted in the province of Quebec, the Taurus Property should be considered an
asset that may be eventually optioned to another junior willing to commit to an
expanded exploration program to earn an interest.
Confining the analysis to the Fenelon Property, the current market capitalization for ITS of under $30 million CDN is in the low end of the range for a junior PM company with a project in development and the imminent expectation of positive cash flow generation from operations. Since the focus of the company has been in pursuit of establishing near surface ore, the estimates for total contained gold resource on the property remain very low, in the order of 100,000 to 150,000 ounces. A reasonable projection can be made for at least 500,000 contained ounces when consideration is given to the known depth of the mineralization, and the potential for further discoveries along the known vein extension laterally. Once the test mining results are disclosed, it is likely that the market will bid a higher premium into the share price that is more representative of a company with an increasing resource of high-grade ore.
The
issues of possible concern for investors at this point may be directed towards
consolidating the ownership of the project.
Management has expressed an interest in buying the 38% interest held by
Fairstar Resources, and this will undoubtedly result in increased dilution in
the shares outstanding if they are successful in their efforts.
The current share structure is already somewhat bloated.
Also there is no certainty that the potential for much higher gold
resources at the property will ever be realized.
If the gold recoveries from the test mining come in at the lower end of
expectations, the program will still be considered a financial success, but will
be regarded as a disappointment by investors.
The
financial resources of the company are more than adequate after the most recent
private placement rose in excess of $4 million dollars.
The conversion of over 30 million additional options and warrants will
contribute millions more in the years ahead.
The company is also due to receive additional cash from the Province of
Quebec for reimbursement of exploration activity completed in 2003.
The remaining variable will be the net proceeds realized from the gold
produced during the test mine. If
one assumes recoveries averaging half an ounce of gold per ton, and a total of
92,000 tons of ore is processed during the program, then the potential exists
for 46,000 ounces of gold. At an
estimated selling price of $400 USD per ounce, this would generate gross
proceeds of $18.4 million USD, or $25 million CDN.
Deducting the costs for shipment and milling contracted to Richmont Mines
of $40/ton ($3.7 million) the JV would recoup in excess of $21million from the
program, which would ensure sufficient cash resources in the treasury to fund a
very aggressive exploration program on Fenelon and perhaps some of the other
properties controlled by ITS.
The
essence of an investment in ITS then is based on the prospects that the Fenelon
Property will be able to spin off positive cash flow to fund the exploration and
development of other prospects. The
answer to that question at least in the near term appears to be in the
affirmative. With large reserves of
cash in the treasury, it is unlikely that the company will have to rely on
equity offerings to raise capital. The
long term potential then for ITS is the possibility that they will have at least
one lucrative mine in production, and possibly several late stage capable of
producing.
An
investment in International Taurus Resources should be confined to risk-tolerant
investors. There is no guarantee
that additional resources will be proven to allow for the ongoing economic
development of any of the properties controlled by the company, and hence no
certainty that a recurring revenue stream will be generated to sustain the
company as a going concern. Mineral
exploration is expensive and time consuming.
Considerable volatility should be expected, and the sector is regularly
impacted by prolonged periods during which trading volume is weak and share
prices decrease. These factors
could result in the loss of capital for investors.
In
mitigation of the risks inherent in the sector, there are a number of factors
that bear consideration. Management has demonstrated the ability to make the
transition from explorer to producer. Quebec
is currently one of the most supportive regimes on the planet for exploration of
mineral resources. The majority of
ITS properties are located in a prolific mining district that has spawned
several successful gold mines in the past. The company remains completely unhedged and hence offers
leverage to a rising price of gold for future production. There is no guarantee that the spot pricing for gold will
continue to climb, but the fundamentals for the sector
are more positive at the current time than any period during the last two
decades. If gold does not increase
but maintains the current price, the operations of the Fenelon Mine will be
profitable. All of these points
combined suggest that ITS offers enormous upside, with limited risk relative to
the peer group of junior exploration companies.
On
the balance, the current share price of ITS of 29 cents, and the market cap of
under $30 million, appears to offer value for investors even if the only
property controlled by the company was Fenelon. When one considers the other properties at varying stages of
exploration, and takes into account the well-funded treasury, the balance tilts
even more in favour of the company. There
are a number of uncertainties that remain to be resolved, but the outlook for
success is realistic. In the event
that the best case scenario of a multi-million ounce gold deposit discovery
becomes a reality, the expectation for capital gains of several hundred percent
are an attractive reward offsetting the potential risks.
A stream of news and results can be expected in the fall of 2004 and the
possibility of the resumption in the precious metals bull market during this
time frame would generate a great deal of upside for investors in this company.
Disclaimer: I have made my research and opinions available to the public as a resource to provide investors and the public with basic information. My comments and opinions should not be interpreted as a recommendation or investment advice, which I am not qualified to provide. While I have made every effort to maintain accuracy in the information I provide, it is possible that there are some errors or omissions in my coverage and the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It remains the responsibility of each individual investor to confirm if the subject of my analysis is appropriate for their investment objectives, and to conduct their own research and due diligence, and retain the services of a qualified advisor on to provide this service on their behalf. I accept no responsibility for the performance of the companies that I feature in my coverage. Junior mining and exploration companies are a risky market sector and investment in these companies can result in loss of capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. From time to time I may purchase stocks in the companies I feature in my reports, and I may sell some or all of my holdings. I will disclose personal ownership in those companies that I refer to at the time of my first coverage, or after follow up reports. I do not accept compensation from companies as payment to provide positive coverage or opinions